Are We There Yet!
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Signs of a Bottom? |
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4/9/2009
The time to buy a home may be now! With the Obama administration's economic stimulus plan now in place, we believe that consumer confidence is finally on the rise. We're already seeing the initial signs of that with increased open house traffic, buyer inquiries and calls to our office. Some experts are predicting that with the help of the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, the increase in conforming loan limits and the new preventative measures against foreclosures, we may reach the bottom by the middle of 2009.
Knowing this, now is the time to share this promising news with you if you're a potential home buyer or looking for investment property. We're also seeing another sign of a bottom for housing, consolidation. Pulte Homes is buying another home builder, Centex. When homebuilders start to buy each other out, it's a sign that they think valuations are attractive and the down-side is limited. It's also a sign that at least some of the home builders are healthy enough to make moves. This particular acquisition by Pulte is even more interesting because Centex owns a lot of land in Florida and California - two markets that have struggled the most and have had very high rates of home foreclosure. We strive to keep you informed so you will know when we may be nearing the end of this challenging cycle in California real estate and if you are considering buying a home or other real estate, now may be the time. |
More of the Same or is 09 the Come Back Year?
Tri-Valley Update.
Since the first week in Jan.2009-
Livermore active listings have decreased about 6% and
total pending sales are up over 8%; Pleasanton active
listings have increased 23% and total pending sales are
up 20%; the active listings in Dublin have remained
steady and the total pending sales are up almost 10%.
A good trend, except for the dramatic increase in
inventory in Pleasanton. Lots of buyers in the market,
first time buyers and investors, with multiple offers is
very common.
Livermore.... is slow this week! In the past 90 days we have had 4
sales, 2 have closed and 2 are pending in this segment
of the market in Livermore. On a positive note, the
active listings in the price range are down about 15% in
the past 90 days in Livermore.
San Ramon....increased activity in the entry level price point. Executive level homes are slow to move unless deep discounts are reflected in the pricing.
Fremont......as more short sales/foreclosures enter the market, buyers stand waiting to make offers. Higher end is slow as with most local markets but overall buyer interest is stronger than the Tri-Valley area.
Castro Valley......
Well priced, well maintained properties are being
snatched up in our local market due to decreases in
inventory. We had a well priced Castro Valley home
that saw multiple offers and went pending (over asking)
within five days of listing. Another clean, well priced
home in the San Lorenzo/Hayward area went back on
the market and had three offers within 2 days. The
shrinking inventory has been helpful to us.
Prices continue to dip. Castro Valley pricing remains
super competitive, with entry level properties hovering
between 350-400K. Oakland is offering some
incredible bargains. One of our Buyers just wrote an
offer on a 3/1 SFR for 65K. Another buyer has picked
up a triplex for 179K.
Buyers continue to flood the office. Activity is definitely
up. One Agent mentioned to us that she has been in
the office, writing offers, until 9pm every night for the
past week or two. Things seem to be looking up.
She also shares the importance of local forecasting noting that it really is a mistake to paint the California real estate market with a broad brush. For example, markets like Central California were hit much harder than the Bay Area yet are often lumped into California real estate stories which make our local numbers seem worse than they actually are.When in fact, our numbers are showing some compelling positive signs. Our sales in the Bay Area, according to DataQuick, have increased 45% since 2007.While we do know that much of this is related to bank owned property sales, the positive side of this is that the buyers are out there and regardless of the price point, the fact is that homes are selling. As we weed through the bank owned listings, inventory will decrease which will eventually cause the price point to increase.
September Market Update!
| Our Bipolar Markets!
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9/21/08
If you missed the recent article by Contra Costa's Assessor, Gus Kramer you missed a very clear call to action. His quote says it all, "As the assessor of Contra Costa county since 1995 and a student of the real estate market of the East Bay since 1971, I've never felt more compelled and stronger about advising anyone and everyone who ever thought about getting into the real estate market to do it now. The assessor does say that prices will still go down a little lower until the end of 2008, notwithstanding he feels purchasing now is a must. On a year to year basis our local market has been performing impressively if you just look at the numbers. Active listings are down 21% while pending sales are up a stunning 83% over this time last year. Now, of course, when we break it down we see the bulk of sales activity in the entry & mid tier price points with many of those transactions bank owned and short sales.Our high end market continues to struggle. There are 66 listings priced at $1 million or more in Livermore. There are only 5 pending sales in this price range. Clearly we have an investor and first time buyer driven market! The move up buyer is still holding back in Livermore-Pleasanton. Larry & Kathleen 800 868-2070 . |
September 08 Market Update !
| Our Bipolar Markets!
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9/21/08
If you missed the recent article by Contra Costa's Assessor, Gus Kramer you missed a very clear call to action. His quote says it all, "As the assessor of Contra Costa county since 1995 and a student of the real estate market of the East Bay since 1971, I've never felt more compelled and stronger about advising anyone and everyone who ever thought about getting into the real estate market to do it now. The assessor does say that prices will still go down a little lower until the end of 2008, notwithstanding he feels purchasing now is a must. On a year to year basis our local market has been performing impressively if you just look at the numbers. Active listings are down 21% while pending sales are up a stunning 83% over this time last year. Now, of course, when we break it down we see the bulk of sales activity in the entry & mid tier price points with many of those transactions bank owned and short sales.Our high end market continues to struggle. There are 66 listings priced at $1 million or more in Livermore. There are only 5 pending sales in this price range. Clearly we have an investor and first time buyer driven market! The move up buyer is still holding back in Livermore-Pleasanton. Larry & Kathleen 800 868-2070 . |
Livermore Real Estate has Two Faces!
The good news is Livermore has 14 % fewer listings and 56% more pending sales than we did Oct. 07 when our inventory peaked. The not so good news is that distressed listings (foreclosed, bank owned & short sale) are a significant influence on our entry and mid level markets. This can crimp the supply of move-up buyers fueling our South Livermore sub-market. In the Tri-Valley, 21% of pending sales are foreclosures. Sounds bad until you look at Brentwood where 72% of pending sales are foreclosures. The silver lining in all these dark clouds is the demand for bank owned properties. It’s strong with most sales receiving multiple offers. When list prices attract multiple buyers it’s a good indication that prices are bottoming.
So where are we in our South Livermore executive home market? We may be at the bottom. There exists 4.3 homes available for every 1 in escrow. …Not bad, given the overall market. And….very few short sales or bank owned exist in our submarket. In fact, of the 157 distressed listings in Livermore, only 3 exist in our executive home sub-market in South Livermore (newer construction priced $900k+) How well our market absorbs the upcoming spring inventory surge may be very revealing! Far to many current buyers are bargain driven thanks to the constant media doom & gloom, but if inventory levels out, a sense of urgency may return to the market. That changes everything, and the new conforming loan limit of $729,000 (from $417,000) can only help!
Larry & Kathleen
Are Buyers Stirring?
Feb. 26, 2008
Economic news was sketchy again this week, with housing related headlines continuing to point out the scary negatives. Fortunately, we continue to see a surprising amount of interest from buyers who are finally deciding to take the plunge. Really, the deals that are out there are getting to be irresistible, and with mortgage rates starting to creep back up, buyers are recognizing that now really just may be the best time to buy.
Sales are increasing in some areas, and it is perhaps the passing of the economic stimulus package that is spurring these buyers into bringing their checkbooks with them when they’re looking at properties. If not the passing of the package itself, it is the added degree of consumer confidence that came as a result of it. Buyers are also being properly educated by the real estate industry and doing their research, not just being scared by skewed headlines. Now they’re jumping in while the deals are out there. We are also starting to see homes that have been on the market for quite awhile starting to get some interest. It is all about being the best price and condition in your class of property. First time buyers are also finding affordable, desirable homes in lower price ranges and through REO sales and they’re buying them.
In Sonoma county we continue to see improved sales activity especially in the lower price ranges and on REO properties. Marin county sales are continuing to improve from January levels as well. In San Francisco , as in other parts of the Bay Area, the high end market remains particularly strong with homes well over the $1 million mark in high demand. A Burlingame property had seven offers and sold for $125,000 over the listing price. Parts of the Peninsula keep seeing this phenomenon occurring, but other sub markets still languish. In Southern Alameda County we have a mixed bag with parts of Pleasanton and Fremont attracting motivated buyers while entry level interest in Livermore still anemic.
Like never before, markets differ from one city to another and in some markets foreclosure pricing is driving the market. It’s worth keeping in mind that many of these off-market sales aren’t included in sales figures collected and reported by the media. Everything isn’t as bleak as some would have us all believe. We are certainly seeing what I would call a split market with the high end doing well, and with the median priced homes slowing their price dive.
Buyers Have Been Sighted!!
The New Year seems to be starting off with a bang! Yes - the headlines continue spouting the latest "factoids" about the implosion of the housing market from whatever company is cranking out the latest set of numbers. However, buyers may have reached the tipping point and seem to realize that the only way to find out if they can get the best deal on the home of their dreams is to TRY. And they're out in full force doing just that in most of our markets. Is it a sea change? It's too early too tell, but it is motivating to know that both buyers and sellers seem more willing to listen to their real estate professionals now, and are putting less faith in Ivory Tower economists who don't live in the Bay Area or understand the nuances and intricacies of our housing markets.
Over and over, our offices are reporting listings and open houses that are buzzing with activity. Two agents in our office report that they encountered multiple offer situations when trying to present $1M + offers just this past weekend. We have witnessed similar scenarios in our South Livermore-Pleasanton Market. In most local markets agents report that they are very surprised at the excellent turn out and open enthusiasm of open house attendees. Buyers appear serious for the first time in a long time.
It's pleasant to report that not only are buyers out there looking - they're also buying. It's been said many times before, but it bears reminding everyone that proper and smart pricing of a home is truly key to entering into a speedy sale. Inventory, priced right, is getting a lot of attention. If it's not, it's not.
We are off and running for the New Year and buyers seem to be ready willing and able to seize the moment....at least so far!
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Will 2008 be the Turnaround Year?
1/8/08
The New Year is here and with it brings countless predictions by economists, industry analysts and more regarding the impending 2008 real estate market. While we don’t profess to own a crystal ball, what we can say with definite certainty is that the current market won’t last forever which is why we're here to tell you that 2008 may be your best opportunity to own a slice of the Golden State.
What You May Expect from Real Estate in 2008....
Some industry analysts predict that the market will turn around in 2008 believing that the overall economy and job growth will continue to move ahead at a decent pace, core inflation will remain under control, the credit crunch in mortgage markets is showing signs of easing, the supply-demand equation will be better balanced as builders begin to whittle down their excess inventories and that interest rates will continue to be attractive.
We tend to agree with the California Association of Realtors®’ prediction that we will see a moderate decline (between three and four percent) statewide in California home prices next year.
In areas where there is little new housing, where it is hard to build and where there is a wealthy population,we believe there may be little decline. The main reason is that there is limited opportunity for new development in these areas and therefore properties are likely to retain their values.
For Buyers
The current housing market offers a unique window of opportunity for confident buyers. The exciting news is that for the first time in quite a while, the stars are in alignment for consumers: mortgage rates remain attractive and there is a large selection of homes to choose from. Furthermore, if history is any indicator, home prices in California remain strong. Thanks to these important factors, now truly may be the best time to buy.
For Sellers
Homes are selling! They may not be selling at the red hot, multiple offer heydays of 2003 and 2004, but they definitely are selling. For those that aren’t, unfortunately those sellers may not be receiving the counsel they need to get their home sold in today’s market.
Now, possibly more so than ever, you need a qualified, experienced Realtor® who can assist you in selling your home. It is usually not enough to simply post your home on the MLS and post a “For Sale” sign in the yard. You need someone who understands the intricacies, inventory and challenges of your local market and someone who knows how to properly position your home so it stands out among the sea of listings currently available.
If you are considering buying or selling your home in 2008,we have the resources, knowledge and experience to properly represent you in today’s market. Contact us today for the expert representation you deserve.
Sincerely, Larry & Kathleen
The Holiday Market!
From Castro Valley to San Francisco, Menlo Park to Livermore and Walnut Creek, we’re hearing that buyer activity is surprisingly busy for this traditionally slower time of year. In some areas, this can be attributed partly to the great selection of value priced homes on the market. It can also be attributed to the fact that there are fewer buyers and fewer sellers around during the holiday season and the ones that are in the market are very serious about buying or selling a home as quickly as possible. Negotiations between buyers and sellers still remain fierce in many areas one of our office reports that up to five and six counter offers are not uncommon before a deal can be closed.
Attendance at open houses was as scattered as our micro-markets are. Sebastopol reports light attendance at opens, but lots of sales activity on properties near $1 million and over a fact illustrated by a five acre property with a small farmhouse that was listed at $850,000, received seven offers and sold for almost $1 million. Buyers haven’t slowed down in the Peninsula housing market either. Menlo Park reports that many agents are as busy now as they usually are during more traditionally busy months, and that open houses were "surprisingly well attended." One listing in Palo Alto had 10 offers and was ratified at approximately 20% over the asking price. "Above average" to brisk open house attendance is also being seen in Half Moon Bay and San Francisco .
A large majority of Coldwell Banker offices reported steady or increasing sales activity, while listing inventory in our markets saw mostly steady or declining levels. While inventory remains high and sellers are willing to negotiate some great deals, now may be the best time to buy.
Help Is On The Way!